The hottest PTA investment report lacks positive f

2022-08-06
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PTA investment report: lack of positive factors, limited rebound space

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data from the American Energy Information Association (EIA) show that last week, the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 7.6 million barrels, and analysts originally estimated that it would decrease by 1.6 million barrels. Crude oil inventories are at their lowest level since February2005. The OPEC supply reduction forecast may also limit the decline in oil prices. In the four weeks up to January 5, the daily export of OPEC member countries excluding Angola and Ecuador will be reduced by 90000 barrels. The record rise in oil prices is likely to continue into next year. The average oil price is expected to rise above US $77 per barrel due to tight supply in OPEC member countries and tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which have overshadowed the impact of the US economic slowdown. At its meeting on December 5, OPEC decided to keep its output unchanged and categorically ignored the calls of oil consuming countries for increasing production to reduce oil prices. OPEC accounts for more than a third of the world's oil supply. The reason why the group restricted supply was partly because it was worried that if the US economy weakened further, the global demand for oil would slow down. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has a different view. It believes that the strong demand from China, India and the Middle East will outweigh the impact of the economic slowdown in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer

the price of naphtha in Asia fell last Friday, which was significantly narrower than the premium of Brent crude oil. The fire at Japan's largest ethylene plant affected production, which may lead to its resale or delay in receiving naphtha shipments. The ethylene plant of Mitsubishi Chemical in Kashima, Japan, was forced to shut down one of the two units due to a fire. It is not known when to restart. The accident may cause the company to delay receiving the January naphtha shipment or resell it. Affected by this, in the first half of February, the price difference between Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ice) and naphtha cracking narrowed by about US $8 to US $176 per ton. In terms of gasoline, the preliminary forecast shows that Asian gasoline demand in the first quarter of 2008 is expected to be weak. This week, Asian naphtha was priced at USD 92.53/barrel FOB Singapore and USD 857.5/ton CIF Japan. PX fell by US $5 to US $1097 FOB South Korea. The PTA transaction in the internal and external markets was light, and the seller offered less, and the transaction basically hovered around 6800/ton; The external quotation is USD/T, and the actual transaction price of Taiwan South Korea PTA is about USD 820/T CFR China for 90 days, but the quantity is small

PTA fell sharply this week as a whole. Ta803, the main contract, was opened at 7380 points. However, due to the sluggish spot sales, the market fell sharply. The highest point in the session was 7388 points and the lowest point was 7006 points, closing at 7074 points, with a cumulative decline of 200 points. The trading volume decreased from 70000 to more than 20000, but the position remained at 80000. At present, PTA futures price has hit the bottom again, and the trading volume has decreased significantly, but the position has not decreased. PTA price rebound still needs downstream consumption support, but at the end of the year, there is great capital pressure from all parties. In addition, it is an off-season before the Spring Festival, so the rebound space is limited, and selling short when high

one week's market review

this week's main contract ta803 opened at 7380 points, with an intraday high of 7388 points and a low of 7006 points, closing at 7074 points, down 206 points or 2.8%. The daily trading volume decreased from 70000 hands to more than 20000 hands, but the position remained at 80000 hands, and there were obvious signs of fund entering and bottom hunting. PX to 1097 dollars/ton FOB Korea, down 5 dollars/ton. A fire broke out in Japan's largest ethylene plant, and the shipment of naphtha was delayed or resold. The CIF Japan price of Asian naphtha fell by US $20/ton this week to US $857.5 CFR Japan

crude oil futures around Newell rose $2.61 to close at $93.3 per barrel

chart: Daily K-line trend chart of domestic ta801 futures price

daily K-line trend chart of domestic ta801 futures price. (source: Boyi market)

figure: Daily K-line trend chart of domestic ta803 futures price

daily K-line trend chart of domestic ta803 futures price. (source: Bo Yi market)

II. Analysis of futures position

the number of registered warehouse receipts in the delivery warehouse of the exchange has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure continues to rise. LDW electronic tensile testing machine reflects that there is still a large amount of untapped PTA social inventory. At present, the number of registered warehouse receipts has reached 48340, an increase of 363 this week, and 250000 tons is equal to 1/2 of the monthly import volume

it has increased by 4 times compared with the beginning of September. Short positions have the upper hand, and the upward pressure on forward contracts has increased

Figure 2: price comparison between PTA weekly warehouse receipts and futures contracts

pta weekly warehouse receipts and futures contracts. (data source: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)

III. recent relevant market changes

(I) PTA spot market

domestic PTA market sales are light, and there are relatively few inquirers in various markets. PTA market quotation drops to about yuan/ton, PTA internal and external quotation, and manufacturers' active quotation is less. The general transaction price of internal quotation is around yuan/ton, and some PTA transactions in yuan/ton have also been heard. Taiwan and South Korea PTA fell $10 compared with last week, The actual transaction price is about US $820/ton CFR China for 90 days. The inventory pressure of some PTA manufacturers in the domestic region has been slightly relieved compared with that in the previous period. The downstream polyester plants have poor sales and few goods are prepared. They are basically purchased with use

Figure 3: daily price trend of domestic PTA and imported PTA

daily price trend of domestic PTA and imported PTA. (data source: China chemical fiber information)

(II) the international crude oil market

the data of the American Energy Information Association (EIA) showed that last week, the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 7.6 million barrels, and analysts originally estimated that it would decrease by 1.6 million barrels. Crude oil inventories are at their lowest level since February2005. The OPEC supply reduction forecast may also limit the decline in oil prices. Analysts predicting future shipments said on Thursday that OPEC member countries excluding Angola and Ecuador would reduce their exports by 90000 barrels a day in the four weeks ended January 5

the record rise in oil prices is expected to continue until next year, and the average oil price is expected to rise above $77 a barrel. The tight supply of OPEC member countries and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East have overshadowed the impact of the US economic slowdown. Merrill Lynch said: "after the crude oil price rose to $99 a barrel, OPEC is still unwilling to increase production, so it seems that the oil price may remain high."

At its meeting on December 5, OPEC decided to keep its output unchanged, and categorically ignored the calls of oil consuming countries for increasing production to reduce oil prices. OPEC accounts for more than a third of the world's oil supply. The reason why the group restricted supply was partly because it was worried that if the US economy weakened further, the global demand for oil would slow down. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has a different view. The agency said that strong demand from China, India and the Middle East would overshadow the impact of the economic slowdown in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said: "the decision of OPEC has limited the actual supply of the market, and the expectation of weak economic and oil demand growth is still just an expectation. At present, there is no sign of significant weakness in the fundamentals of the oil market."

Goldman Sachs is the most active investment bank in the energy market, and also the most optimistic investment bank on oil price among the surveyed investment banks. It predicts that the average oil price in the United States will rise above $95 in 2008, and the oil price is expected to rise to $105 by the end of next year. The fall of the US dollar, the cold weather in winter and a series of oil supply disruptions helped keep the oil price above US $90 for most of the fourth quarter. Next year, the average price of Brent crude oil futures in London is expected to rise to $76.49 a barrel, which is $3.61 higher than last month's estimate

1. The fixture equipped with the machine shall be coated with anti rust oil for storage; Although the survey shows that oil prices will peak next year, analysts are still bullish on long-term oil prices. It is estimated that the oil price in the United States is expected to exceed $70 by 2010. The median forecast shows that the US oil price is expected to rise to $70.60 per barrel in 2010, which is $2.34 higher than the forecast in November. On Friday, the premium of Brent crude oil futures over US crude oil futures rose to US $1.53

the US dollar recorded its largest one-day increase against the euro in about three years. Therefore, the strong US consumer price index (CPI) data released earlier cooled investors' expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) would cut interest rates substantially

Figure 4: comparison of closing prices of domestic PTA spot and New York crude oil futures

comparison of closing prices of domestic PTA spot and New York crude oil futures. (data source: Fuyuan, Reuters)

(III) other relevant industrial chains

1. Naphtha prices in Asia fell on Friday, significantly narrower than the premium of Brent crude oil. The fire in Japan's largest ethylene plant affected production, which could lead to its resale or delay in receiving naphtha shipments. The ethylene plant of Mitsubishi Chemical in Kashima, Japan, was forced to shut down one of the two units due to a fire. It is not known when to restart. The accident may cause the company to delay receiving the January naphtha shipment or resell it. Affected by this, in the first half of February, the price difference between Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ice) and naphtha cracking narrowed by about US $8 to US $176 per ton. In terms of gasoline, the preliminary forecast shows that Asian gasoline demand in the first quarter of 2008 is expected to be weak. Vietnam is expected to import about 220000 tons of gasoline next month, a decrease of about 16% compared with the current quarter. Vietnam is the second largest gasoline importer in Asia after Indonesia. Light distillates are expected to show a bull market next week due to strong demand

the market was weak this week because the west east arbitrage window opened. The price of Japanese open specification naphtha in the first half of February fell by $3.50 to $per ton; The price difference in the half month period with the trend of cargo premium narrowed by 50 cents to US $3.50/ton. In the naphtha spot market, two transactions were concluded in the second half of February, with a transaction price of 858 US dollars/ton

figure: daily trend of closing prices of naphtha (daily cash) and New York crude oil futures

daily trend of closing prices of naphtha (daily cash) and New York crude oil futures. (data source: Reuters, Fuyuan)

figure: daily trend of domestic PTA spot and naphtha (spot) prices

daily trend of domestic PTA spot and naphtha (spot) prices. (data source: Reuters, China chemical fiber information)

2. PX market

at present, the crude oil price remains at a high level of $90, and the cost supports PX spot still above the FOB level of $1097/ton. In December, the PX contract quotation was generated in USD/T in the early stage, but the PX settlement negotiation failed to come out for a long time. The PX supplier's intended price is at least USD 1100/T or more, and the price acceptable to PTA factory is estimated to be in the USD/T range. The high PX level and PTA's current low level in the whole year or even in recent years may have become a few positive factors for PTA. However, from 2008 to 2010, the new PX capacity will exceed the capacity demand of PTA. At that time, the PX price may decline significantly. Although the decline in PX price is good for reducing PTA production costs, but refers to the boards and cards used by hengsi Shanda Jinan experimental machine for experiments, on the whole, in the face of the fact that PTA's own industry supply exceeds demand, the substantive change in current terminal demand is the main driver dominating the later market change. It is expected that the PX price will remain above 1080 next week

Figure 6: daily trend of domestic PTA and FOB Korean PX prices

daily trend of domestic PTA and FOB Korean PX prices. (data source: China chemical fiber information)

3. MEG market

meg oversold and rebounded this week. As the available spot quantity in Meg's internal market is still relatively small,

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