The hottest PTA rebound cycle has not ended yet

2022-07-27
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PTA rebound cycle has not yet ended

since Monday, pta1301 contract has encountered technical pressure at the 60 day moving average, and the futures price has risen and fallen. However, supported by multiple factors such as the loosening of policy, the rebound of oil price and the beginning of the stocking cycle, the PTA rebound cycle has not ended. After short-term adjustment, PTA will still run upward. Rigid polyurethane foam has high shrinkage strength, adhesion and shear strength

the shift of risk aversion affects the market

in order to avoid further economic decline, the global policy loosening pattern has been formed, and the capital market is facing the combined impact of macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy expectations and risk event expectations. In the context of policy relaxation, high-risk assets may rebound periodically in the time window when risk aversion eases

the most likely trend of the commodity market is that it bottomed out at the beginning of the third quarter and then slowly recovered. At present, on the one hand, the loosening of global policies and the gradual decline of risk aversion will provide support for commodity prices; On the other hand, it is difficult for the real economy to improve significantly and rapidly. The rise of commodity prices is limited and will not be achieved overnight. The rapid change of risk aversion will lead to a rapid shift in the market. The recent trend of PTA also preliminarily verified the above judgment. The loose policies at home and abroad and the gradual easing of risk aversion provided support for the upward oscillation of PTA

the demand for goods preparation was started, and the polyester inventory decreased.

the recovery of demand also laid the foundation for hot welding and hot bending rebound of PTA this time. Since the end of June, driven by the psychology of "buying up but not buying down" and the start of stocking demand, polyester inventory has continued to fall, and it is expected to continue to decline this week

in the face of the autumn production peak, the current is the transition stage of polyester and cloth production from the off-season to the peak season. Enterprises need to reserve raw materials in advance. The loom operating rate is expected to start to rise in the middle and late August. Therefore, the downstream replenishment demand has not yet ended. In addition, the consumption of textile raw materials for textile and garment production in autumn and winter is higher than that in spring and summer, and the textile demand in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half

crude oil starts to run horizontally

at present, there are four major supporting factors for international oil prices: first, the reduction of short-term risk of European debt eased risk aversion in the third quarter; Second, global policies tend to be loose; Third, the geopolitical crisis in Iran, Syria and other regions remains the same; Fourth, gasoline consumption in the United States has entered the summer peak season, and the main oil producing areas in the Gulf of Mexico have gradually entered the hurricane high incidence period

of course, the current oil price is also facing three bad tests: first, the downward trend of the global economy has not turned, and there is uncertainty about the seasonal recovery of crude oil demand; Second, the US presidential election has entered a critical period, and Obama's efforts to suppress oil prices may increase; Third, the strong US dollar pattern in the medium term has compressed the upward space for oil prices

in the face of the impact of long and short factors, it is expected that the futures price of NYMEX August contract crude oil will be adjusted horizontally in the range of 80-90 dollars in the short term. In the medium term, the space below the crude oil futures price is limited, or it is running too much, and PX will also get cost support

position remains high

since the beginning of June, the total PTA position of Zhengshang exchange has been maintained at a high level of about 600000, and the interest of both long and short positions has not decreased. During this period, PTA futures prices hit the bottom and rebounded, and the trading volume was significantly enlarged. The coordination of price, trading volume and position shows that the current market is still in a strong pattern

in addition, as of July 18, the top 20 net short positions have decreased from 67117 at the beginning of the month to 16378, and the ratio of long short positions has also increased from 0.72 to 0.91. This change may be attributed to the market expectation that the overall operation of PTA industrial chain tends to improve

the registered warehouse receipt quantity can also be used as a reference for transactions. As of July 18, the total number of PTA warehouse receipts and effective forecast of Zhengshang exchange was only 2402, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of June. Faced with continuous negative cash flow, PTA manufacturers' hedging willingness is obviously not high

investment suggestions and risk factors

in general, 8000 points has become the medium and short-term pressure of ta1301 contract. TORLON polyamide imide (PAI) has the highest strength and stiffness level, but PTA rebound cycle has not ended, and it is expected to rise again after short-term adjustment. Therefore, after the market pressure is released, 7500 points or a better long point is recommended to take the 40 day line as the stop loss. Downstream demand, cotton (19405, -60.00, -0.31%) price and policy trend are factors that investors need to pay close attention to

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